We can’t predict the future and if you could life would probably suck.
I realized a long time ago to surround myself with people smarter than me and learn everything you can from them. There are many steps along my journey I could never have done alone. And maybe that’s the point.
The following is one of many lessons learned from one of those people to surround yourself with. I’m giving “credit where credit is due”.
“The first rule of forecasts is that forecasts are always wrong”
What does that mean?
There will always be things you can’t foresee in the future. Maybe not in short periods, but long enough time and complexity it’s certain. More certain than Tom Izzo in March.
So how does this help us forecast?
“The more variables and complexity you have the harder it is to know what’s wrong”
Knowing you’re going to be wrong means you are prepared to learn and adapt. Simplicity leans toward easy adjustment. If I can learn one of my 5 assumptions/inputs was wrong in a basic calculation I adjust easily. If I spent months on monolithic mathematics that make no sense to the masses I might be less likely to make changes.
“Are you sure?”
By the time you might have figured out which one of your inputs or calculations might be irrelevant or wrong I’ve already made several corrections. As metrics move my changes are easy to adjust and make more sense.
If I go in expecting to learn and without marriage to metrics I’m going to beat you to the finish. The problem more often than not is a pathological pursuit of premature perfection. Lack of patience will lead to performance placebo. Perceived progress through piss poor paradigms pushed through to protect the pretentious pontificators that paradoxically postpone the providence of proof.
When I could have said smart people aren’t scared of simple solutions and dumb dumbs fear folks finding out.